Dollar yana pasaydi, yevro tushdi, rubl ko‘tarildi — valyuta kurslarida qanday signallar bor?
O‘zbekiston Markaziy banki 18 aprel kuni uchun xorijiy valyutalarning so‘mga nisbatan yangi rasmiy kurslarini e’lon qildi. Yangi kurslar bo‘yicha:
1 dollar — 12 964,43 so‘m (▼ 30,16 so‘m)
1 yevro — 14 744,45 so‘m (▼ 17,40 so‘m)
1 rubl — 158,28 so‘m (▲ 0,60 so‘m)
Bu o‘zgarishlar fonida dollar ikkinchi kundan so‘ng pasaydi. Yevro ham tushdi, rubl esa biroz tiklandi.
Valyuta bozoridagi to‘lqinlar nimadan darak beradi?
Oxirgi kunlardagi o‘sish-pasayishlar iqtisodchilar va jamoatchilikda savol uyg‘otmoqda: valyuta kursi sun’iy ravishda ushlab turilayaptimi?
Ayrim iqtisodiy tahlilchilarning ta’kidlashicha, agar valyuta kursi to‘liq erkinlashtirilsa, 1 dollar 18–20 ming so‘mgacha yetib borishi mumkin. Bu, ularning fikricha, bozordagi haqiqiy talab va taklif nisbatiga yaqinroq kurs bo‘ladi.
Ammo Markaziy bank bu iddaolarni rad etmoqda. Regulyator ta’kidicha, kurs shakllanishi bozor mexanizmlari orqali amalga oshiriladi, valyuta intervensiyalari esa keskin tebranishlarni yumshatish uchun amalga oshiriladi.
Kurs 2025 yil oxirigacha qanday bo‘lishi mumkin?
Hozircha aniq ssenariy yo‘q, biroq tahlilchilar 3 ta ehtimoliy ssenariyni tilga olishmoqda:
1. Stabillashgan ssenariy
: Markaziy bank bozorni boshqarishda davom etsa, 2025 yil oxirigacha kurs 13 200 – 13 500 so‘m atrofida turishi mumkin.
2. Iqtisodiy bosim ssenariysi
: Narxlar oshib, inflyatsiya kuchaysa, kurs 14 000–15 000 so‘m atrofiga yetishi ehtimoldan xoli emas.
3. Erkin bozor ssenariysi
: Agar kurs to‘liq erkinlashtirilsa va valyutaga talab yuqori bo‘lsa, 1 dollar 17 000–20 000 so‘mgacha ko‘tarilishi mumkin.
Nima qilish kerak? Yaqin kelajakdagi xavflar va imkoniyatlar
Biznes va eksportyorlar uchun
— valyutada daromad oluvchilar kurs ko‘tarilsa foydada bo‘ladi, ammo import xarajatlari oshib boradi.
Aholi uchun
— inflyatsiya xavfi saqlanadi, ayniqsa import mahsulotlarga bog‘liq soha va bozorlarda.
Bank va moliya tizimi uchun
— qurbni barqaror ushlash asosiy muammoga aylanadi.
Sayt haqida
«Zamin» – O‘zbekiston yangiliklari.
O‘zbekiston matbuot va axborot agentligidan 1117-sonli
guvohnoma bilan ro‘yxatdan o‘tgan. Elektron manzil:
[email protected]
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